Building a financial forecast can be difficult but building a financial forecast when the world Is facing an unprecedented global pandemic is a completely different story. To learn from the best, I sat down with Doug Brewster, Sr. Director of FP&A at Confluent
, to learn more about how he and his team forecasted when Corona first hit the United States. He walked me through the framework that they used at Confluent to build their scenario planning.
Here's what Doug had to say:
When Coronavirus really started coming to the states, in February of 2020. Sequoia Capital had sent out this memo, and some of these other investment firms had sent out similar memos, warning founders and management teams to plan accordingly and to start building out scenario analysis.
So, we kicked off a lot of scenario planning to look at what the impact would be on our top line. We looked at different booking scenarios, taking it as a percentage of what our original plan was and then also looking at what the impact would be on our new ARR bookings growth.